Author dc.contributor.author | Garay, József | |
Author dc.contributor.author | Kun, Ádám | |
Author dc.contributor.author | Varga, Zoltán | |
Author dc.contributor.author | Gámez, Manuel | |
Author dc.contributor.author | Castaño-Fernández, Ana Belén | |
Author dc.contributor.author | Móri, Tamás F. | |
Availability Date dc.date.accessioned | 2023-07-07T09:50:32Z | |
Availability Date dc.date.available | 2023-07-07T09:50:32Z | |
Release dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
uri dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10831/89889 | |
Abstract dc.description.abstract | The pandemic reminded us that the pathogen evolution still has a serious effect on human societies. States, however, can prepare themselves for the emergence of a novel pathogen with unknown characteristics by analysing potential scenarios. Game theory offers such an appropriate tool. In our game-theoretical framework, the state is playing against a pathogen by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions to fulfil its socio-political goals, such as guaranteeing hospital care to all needed patients, keeping the country functioning, while the applied social restrictions should be as soft as possible. With the inclusion of activity and economic sector dependent transmission rate, optimal control of lockdowns and health care capacity management is calculated. We identify the presence and length of a pre-symptomatic infectious stage of the disease to have the greatest effect on the probability to cause a pandemic. Here we show that contrary to intuition, the state should not strive for the great expansion of its health care capacities even if its goal is to provide care for all requiring it and minimize the cost of lockdowns. | |
Language dc.language | Angol | |
Title dc.title | State-controlled epidemic in a game against a novel pathogen | |
Type dc.type | folyóiratcikk | |
Date Change dc.date.updated | 2023-07-07T09:48:58Z | |
Note dc.description.note | Institute of Evolution, Centre for Ecological Research, Konkoly-Thege M. út 29-33, Budapest, 1121, Hungary MTA-ELTE Theoretical Biology and Evolutionary Ecology Research Group and Department of Plant Systematics, Ecology and Theoretical Biology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/c, Budapest, 1117, Hungary Department of Mathematics and Modelling, Institute of Mathematics and Basic Science, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter K. u. 1., Gödöllő, 2100, Hungary Department of Mathematics, University of Almería, La Cañada de San Urbano, Almería, 04120, Spain Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Reáltanoda u. 13-15., Budapest, 1053, Hungary Export Date: 6 October 2022 Correspondence Address: Kun, Á.; Institute of Evolution, Konkoly-Thege M. út 29-33, Hungary; email: kunadam@elte.hu | |
Scope dc.format.page | 15716 | |
Doi ID dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19691-7 | |
Wos ID dc.identifier.wos | 000857187000014 | |
ID Scopus dc.identifier.scopus | 85138143329 | |
MTMT ID dc.identifier.mtmt | 33103909 | |
Issue Number dc.identifier.issue | 1 | |
abbreviated journal dc.identifier.jabbrev | SCI REP | |
Journal dc.identifier.jtitle | SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | |
Volume Number dc.identifier.volume | 12 | |
Release Date dc.description.issuedate | 2022 | |
Pubmed ID dc.identifier.pubmed | 36127449 | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Növényrendszertani, Ökológiai és Elméleti Biológiai Tanszék | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | MTA-ELTE Elméleti Biológiai és Evolúciós Ökológiai Kutatócsoport | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Wesley János Lelkészképző Főiskola | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Evolúciótudományi Intézet | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Matematika és Modellezés Tanszék | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Valószínűségszámítás és Statisztika | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | MTA-ELTE-MTM Ökológiai Kutatócsoport | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | ELKH-ELTE-MTM Integratív Ökológia Kutatócsoport | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Synergy | |
department of Author dc.contributor.institution | Felsőbbfokú Tanulmányok Intézete | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | MTA-ELTE Elméleti Biológiai és Evolúciós Ökológiai Kutatócsoport | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | Növényrendszertani, Ökológiai és Elméleti Biológiai Tanszék | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | Evolúciótudományi Intézet | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | MTA-ELTE Elméleti Biológiai és Evolúciós Ökológiai Kutatócsoport | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | Növényrendszertani, Ökológiai és Elméleti Biológiai Tanszék | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | Evolúciótudományi Intézet | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | Matematika és Modellezés Tanszék | |
Author institution dc.contributor.department | Valószínűségszámítás és Statisztika |
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