Show simple item record

Author
dc.contributor.author
Garay, József 
Author
dc.contributor.author
Kun, Ádám 
Author
dc.contributor.author
Varga, Zoltán 
Author
dc.contributor.author
Gámez, Manuel 
Author
dc.contributor.author
Castaño-Fernández, Ana Belén 
Author
dc.contributor.author
Móri, Tamás F. 
Availability Date
dc.date.accessioned
2023-07-07T09:50:32Z
Availability Date
dc.date.available
2023-07-07T09:50:32Z
Release
dc.date.issued
2022
uri
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/10831/89889
Abstract
dc.description.abstract
The pandemic reminded us that the pathogen evolution still has a serious effect on human societies. States, however, can prepare themselves for the emergence of a novel pathogen with unknown characteristics by analysing potential scenarios. Game theory offers such an appropriate tool. In our game-theoretical framework, the state is playing against a pathogen by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions to fulfil its socio-political goals, such as guaranteeing hospital care to all needed patients, keeping the country functioning, while the applied social restrictions should be as soft as possible. With the inclusion of activity and economic sector dependent transmission rate, optimal control of lockdowns and health care capacity management is calculated. We identify the presence and length of a pre-symptomatic infectious stage of the disease to have the greatest effect on the probability to cause a pandemic. Here we show that contrary to intuition, the state should not strive for the great expansion of its health care capacities even if its goal is to provide care for all requiring it and minimize the cost of lockdowns.
Language
dc.language
Angol
Title
dc.title
State-controlled epidemic in a game against a novel pathogen
Type
dc.type
folyóiratcikk
Date Change
dc.date.updated
2023-07-07T09:48:58Z
Note
dc.description.note
Institute of Evolution, Centre for Ecological Research, Konkoly-Thege M. út 29-33, Budapest, 1121, Hungary MTA-ELTE Theoretical Biology and Evolutionary Ecology Research Group and Department of Plant Systematics, Ecology and Theoretical Biology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/c, Budapest, 1117, Hungary Department of Mathematics and Modelling, Institute of Mathematics and Basic Science, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter K. u. 1., Gödöllő, 2100, Hungary Department of Mathematics, University of Almería, La Cañada de San Urbano, Almería, 04120, Spain Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Reáltanoda u. 13-15., Budapest, 1053, Hungary Export Date: 6 October 2022 Correspondence Address: Kun, Á.; Institute of Evolution, Konkoly-Thege M. út 29-33, Hungary; email: kunadam@elte.hu
Scope
dc.format.page
15716
Doi ID
dc.identifier.doi
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19691-7
Wos ID
dc.identifier.wos
000857187000014
ID Scopus
dc.identifier.scopus
85138143329
MTMT ID
dc.identifier.mtmt
33103909
Issue Number
dc.identifier.issue
1
abbreviated journal
dc.identifier.jabbrev
SCI REP
Journal
dc.identifier.jtitle
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume Number
dc.identifier.volume
12
Release Date
dc.description.issuedate
2022
Pubmed ID
dc.identifier.pubmed
36127449
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Növényrendszertani, Ökológiai és Elméleti Biológiai Tanszék
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
MTA-ELTE Elméleti Biológiai és Evolúciós Ökológiai Kutatócsoport
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Wesley János Lelkészképző Főiskola
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Evolúciótudományi Intézet
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Matematika és Modellezés Tanszék
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Valószínűségszámítás és Statisztika
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
MTA-ELTE-MTM Ökológiai Kutatócsoport
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
ELKH-ELTE-MTM Integratív Ökológia Kutatócsoport
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Synergy
department of Author
dc.contributor.institution
Felsőbbfokú Tanulmányok Intézete
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
MTA-ELTE Elméleti Biológiai és Evolúciós Ökológiai Kutatócsoport
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
Növényrendszertani, Ökológiai és Elméleti Biológiai Tanszék
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
Evolúciótudományi Intézet
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
MTA-ELTE Elméleti Biológiai és Evolúciós Ökológiai Kutatócsoport
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
Növényrendszertani, Ökológiai és Elméleti Biológiai Tanszék
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
Evolúciótudományi Intézet
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
Matematika és Modellezés Tanszék
Author institution
dc.contributor.department
Valószínűségszámítás és Statisztika


Files in this item

State-controlled epidemic in a game against a novel pathogen
 

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record